Betfair Cricket Tips: Trading the Cricket World Cup 2019


so I thought it was about time that I
did a video on cricket trading now as some of you may be away I haven’t traded
cricket much before however this year we’ve got the Cricket World Cup in the
UK it’s a great opportunity to look at some high liquidity markets and to
gather lots of data and look at trading styles on cricket markets and that’s
what we’re going to do in this video if you’re interested in learning to trade
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so yeah cricket markets are pretty big and that’s what has generated a lot of
interest I have actually traded and will looked at cricket before and I went back
and looked to my data and a very first cricket match that I ever looked at was
back in 2005 and I have gathered data on bits of cricket but never really dived
into it seriously before and that is simply because I’m too busy on
everything else adding cricket into the mix is a
nightmare however it seemed like a great opportunity this year because of the
Cricket World Cup to really get stuck into it and really understand it
properly so what I’m going to do in this video is give you an overview of things
that I’ve learned so far I’m not going to tell you that it’s like the most
extensive overview and if you do this you will make it an enormous amount of
money but hopefully would give you a better understanding of the way that a
cricket market works and more specifically in this case because it’s
the Cricket World Cup one-day internationals and so yeah let’s have a
look and understand what you see in a cricket match and some of the key
characteristics within it so cricket as a trading market is particularly huge
now it’s funny really because I can’t immediately explain to you why this is
the case why it’s cricket that took off as a sport to trade when some of the
other sports that are more popular in in general in a general sense haven’t
reached these sort of levels however it’s pretty obvious if you
look at most of the high-profile cricket mattresses that you get a lot of
turnover and especially in limited / cricket if you go back many years ago
cricket was seen as something that’s played over like four hundred days by
middle-aged men and it wasn’t particularly exciting but crickets done
a great job of reinventing itself with limited / cricket so we’ve got the t20
you’ve got the Big Bash in Australia and you’ve got the one-day internationals in
the Cricket World Cup that we’re seeing this year which is limited / cricket as
well so basically it forces the players to get those shots out and the bowlers
to get players out and it just live-ins it up a little bit and I think other
sports could probably learn a lot from the way that cricket has reinvented
itself at this particular level but yeah the amount of volume that you get at
cricket is absolutely immense so if you look at the images behind me here you
can see that regularly at the one-day international matches turn over about a
hundred million and you know the biggest market that we’ve had so far in the
World Cup this year it’s been over 140 million so there are loads of people
asking whether we could see a match in the latter stages of the tournament I’m
not going to talk about the tournament format in this video by the way but it’s
possible we could see some absolutely immense markets as we head into the
latter stages of the tournament so it’s gonna be an interesting one to watch out
but yeah the thing that attracted me and finally got me looking at cricket and a
little bit more depth is the enormous accuracy and the interesting thing is
I’m gonna brush across a few you know topics in this particular video but this
amount of liquidity opens up whole range of opportunities I’ve discovered a lot
of stuff already that works that’s reliant upon high liquidity and that is
unusual and that you can do which you wouldn’t be to do another market so it’s
interesting to see that but also the interesting thing about cricket is like
you know if you get a goal in football the markets suspended but a wicket in
cricket excuse the the pun there will generate a
similar sort of move or a you know a significant move but there is no market
suspension so I suspect that’s one of the things that helps this particular
market because if you look at the mess that the suspensions create
football especially with VAR that is you know I think they really need to
seriously work on it and I think having unmanaged markets on football may work
the same you know well in the same way that it does with cricket I don’t know
maybe have some views on that let me know yeah
cricket is huge so we’re currently in the Cricket World Cup at the MA at this
moment in time it’s a one-day international and it’s limited over
cricket so to explain for those people who’ve never even looked at cricket ever
or don’t understand it yeah and over in cricket is basically six balls so they
were bowled six balls apart from if there’s a wide or and yeah I’m not going
to go into that detail and then they change ends and they keep on changing
ends every six balls every over and limited over cricket is where the team
can only play for a limited number of overs so the t20 as the name suggests is
limited to 20 overs and the one-day internationals is the Cricket World Cup
are limited to 50 overs so basically have 50 overs to score as many runs as
possible and for all of your players not to get out so obviously the your innings
could end either at 50 overs or if you get all of your players out so yeah if
there’s an incentive to score runs there’s an incentive to get wickets and
that’s what makes it exciting but yeah there are significant volumes
as I showed on that previous slide you know we’ve seen the volumes range
between sort of 50 to 100 million regularly and sometimes a lot higher and
I suspect that will be bigger as we go through the tournament cricket is also
highly variable as well as a lot of variability in cricket and I think that
makes it for an interesting market and that probably increases volumes as well
so when I was looking at cricket I sort of saw a tennis market and I also saw a
sort of football market as well and I’ll come on to explain that in a bit but
basically in tennis you know the match can fling around if player gets broken
and in cricket a couple of wickets in quick succession can fling the match
around in the other direction as well so yeah it’s it’s interesting to see how
variable it is and but also how that variability maps to other sports that
you may have traded in the past the other interesting thing about cricket as
well is the weather the weather has an impact on cricket the weather can affect
wicked and how the teams are likely to play but also and you know this was an
interesting thing for me that I hadn’t really spotted before was that you can
trade cricket when there is actually no cricket on so it’s interesting to see
just how remarkably active the markets are when you’re looking at the completed
match market so you sometimes see this the acronym CMM completed match market
but even if there is no cricket to be played because of the whether they
completed match market suddenly springs to life so what you can see on the slide
behind me is when I remember which team it was I think was West Indies South
Africa was playing at the Rose Bowl in Southampton and you can see from the
forecast there was forecast to be rain all day and you can see from the radar
that I’m using on this particular slide that the rain was moving in and
circulating around the ground so as a consequence it’s pretty obvious that
there was going to be no play on this particular day but if you look at the
completed match market you can see that there was twelve point six million
traded on this particular market and in fact when they actually went to do the
toss first thing in the morning you can see that they looked like the match was
probably going to complete and therefore the the no market started to drift but
as soon as the way they set in you can see gradually it came all the way back
in so this was one of the first completed match markets that I traded
did very well at it and that sort of sparked my interest as well so even if
there’s no cricket there’s still a market to trade so you know that is an
interesting aspect of cricket you may want to look at so we’ve just talked
about the weather and the weather also affects the you know the very first
thing that happens within a match if a match is going to take place which is
the toss so the two captains have go out to the center of the pitch they’ll toss
a coin and then one whoever wins the toss can decides to bat or field so that
will depend upon what the wicket is like because if the wicket is a bit harder
and you know and not as green then that would probably favour the batters but if
the the wicked isn’t particularly suitable for flatting then obviously you
know there is a preference there depending upon the prevailing conditions
I’m not going to go into great depth of that because I’ve made a whole pages and
pages of notes and looked at what people have saved in the commentators and
there’s a lot more depth to it I’m not gonna give you some generic term to
decide whether it’s good to Battlefield it’s very dependent upon what goes on
the day but the commentators and the ex players that go out and examine the
would give you a good stare on that immediately but you can see that as soon
as the toss is done that immediately affects the odds of the team so on this
particular occasion New Zealand were playing South Africa they won the toss
and they decided to field first because they felt that they could do some damage
to the South Africans and they may better limit the number of runs that the
South Africans could get in perhaps the wicket was more suitable for bowling
than it was the batting so yeah the toss is the first thing that you notice
within a match that influences who goes in to bat first and that can give an
advantage to a team with a new ball on a wicket that’s more suitable for bowling
the batting so yeah that’s something that I noticed straight away as well
but also what you tend to don’t is when the game is underway there’s a sort of
generic it’s not as simple as this because nothing is ever that simple but
there’s a generic method of operation that the market has whereby if a
boundary if the team is batting and they get a boundary then the price will tend
to come in because their run rate increases but if there’s a wicket then
obviously their chance of them winning goes out so you know if you look at the
graph that we’ve got here you can see a variety of spikes all over the place but
they can be explained by you know the big spike down is when New Zealand lost
a wicket and then you can see their run rates improving which pushes the price
out and then there’s another wicket which pushes the price down so it sort
of goes if I’m illustrating with my hands sort of you know few boundaries
few runs wicket if you boundaries few on a wicket but of course it could go
Foundry few runs wicket wicket and then it starts to creep back up again but
generally speaking immediately after a wicket as long as they don’t lose
another one immediately then the price will start going back in their favor as
they get a few runs and effectively the run rate defines the end price of the
team so if they’re heading for a very very
Gudrun right then basically their price would begin to shorten on the batting
team but if the run rate is poor then the chance will drift so what I mean by
run rate defines end price I’m sort of saying the chance of them winning the
match is quite dependent upon the run right in the number of records they’ve
got left there’s an interaction there but basically you know the higher the
run rate the more chance they’ve got a winning which doesn’t make sense right
so if we examine this a bit further I’m going to describe a match as it sort of
unfolded so that you can understand exactly what we’re talking about here
but if we look at New Zealand v Pakistan which was I think yesterday I’ve been
capturing graphs data all manner of things on all of these markets but you
can see here the price was pretty flat for a while which indicates the period
before the match started match started and then New Zealand got a New Zealand
went in to bat and Pakistan got a wicket fairly quickly let’s make sure that we
get this right so you can see the price in Pakistan was fairly flat it looked
like a fairly even match Pakistan get a wicket and then the price on Pakistan
comes in so New Zealand were batting thanks down get the wicked the price and
Pakistan comes in and then you can see that New Zealand the first order batters
generally dig in and knock ups and decent run so you can see that after
that first work at the price started to head out again and started to drift off
into the distance so this was basically saying that as the run rights were being
accrued for New Zealand the chance of Pakistan winning at the match was
reducing and that’s why you can see the price and Pakistan drifting then you can
see what happens when that second wicket gets taken and incidentally you can see
a little bump on some of these points so these would be where they get Falls or
sixes so you can see there’s a sudden spike up that would be a boundary and
then you can see the wicket plummeting down you can see how that has affected
price so yeah you can see fairly clearly how the match is unfolding from this
particular aspect and then you can see we’ve got a third wicket taken so we can
see the first wicket the second and then New Zealand’s stopped yeah getting of
some decent runs on the board and then that third wicket Falls and
then you can see here that the pattern repeats itself over a period of time so
you can see wicket run rates increase wicket run rate wicket run right so you
know it’s a lovely illustration this is why I chose in this graph because it
shows you how the prices move because if you’re trading it you obviously want to
you know lay or back at certain prices so you know you could back hoping for a
wicket within the next few overs and then the wicket comes and then you’ve
trade out or you could wait for that wicket and then expect for a wicket not
to occur for a period of time so it almost sort of feels a bit like over and
under two and a half goals now when you’re actively trading if you’re
familiar with football that’s sort of how it trades a little bit more complex
that’s sort of how it trades a bit on cricket but you can see at the tail end
of this graph you can see that the price and Pakistan winning drifts and drift
and drift and drifts and that’s because there were no wickets and actually New
Zealand were clocking up a fair number of runs so yeah you know that gives you
a view on how a market trades and what influences the price it’s more complex
than that I’m creating a model with all of the data that I’m going to gather off
of cricket but essentially that’s what you’re seeing when you’re looking at
these odds and the way the results move that will allow you to anticipate a
trading position you can sort of say well I think there’s going to be okay I
don’t think there’s going to be a wicket and then that would define your entry
point within the market and the potential exit point as well likes a bit
more complex than that but hopefully that’s giving you an idea of the way
that the market moves so yeah when a team goes in to bat first they need to
get a very high score so one of the first things that I did was to actually
look at if her team scored a certain amount in the first innings what was
their chance of going on to win the entire match now the fact is I am
looking at about 10 15 different Mehcad metrics the wicket the run rate had
certain overs how power plays affect things and how many runs are scored in
each individual over because when a team comes out they tend to try and not lose
wickets and then they try and build their total but if they’ve got five
wickets then five overs left they might as well throw away a few wickets so you
know I’m looking at all of those things there’s a lot of depth
which I will examine and get some stats out of it at some particular point but
the purpose of this video is not to go into those or into that detail but just
to give you an overview but yeah basically you know that more runs you
get the more chance you have of winning if you’re batting first and then it’s
all about the run chased by the second team so if you get a good projected run
total the chance of you winning the match increases but that’s countered by
wickets so if you get a large number of wickets then that will obviously reduce
your chance of staying in 450 overs and knocking up a high run Toto if you’re
batting first so you know and obviously the pitch will affect the rate at which
you score as well so if you’re playing on a pitch that isn’t easy for people
batting then obviously you would expect both teams to get a lot of room right
and therefore that changes all of the odds as well but yeah in a sense
hopefully this slide in that graph shows you that basically the higher run rate
you get which makes no sense than the more chance could have winning the match
and that influences directly the chasing team’s
total that they need to get and the run rate their they need to achieve as well
so yeah you know I’m looking at many different aspects but there’s just one
of them that I’m looking at at this particular moment in time now the great
thing about cricket is there are actually an awful lot of sites that have
great data on it so this is the run rate from this particular match so you can
see running from left to right from 0 to 50 overs you can actually see how the
match progressed so you can see basically New Zealand got off to a shaky
start their run rate declined and then it started to pick up so over fits that
on to the chart that you saw and their circles that you can see away the
wickets were taken and that allows you to correlate what’s happening with the
price activity in the market and where it’s going to go but of course when you
then look at the opposing team and you overlay that this is all publicly
available there are loads of sites that do these graphs you can see that
Pakistan got off to a higher run rate and then will persistently high for a
long period of time so you can see that when Pakistan went in to bat generally
the chance of winning the match it was immediately apparent that it was going
to be much higher much quicker so you can see that straight away
the first graph I plotted which coincidentally was available everywhere
us as well so I didn’t need to plot it so I’m not doing this any longer
it’s what they call the worm so this is basically showing you the score after a
set number of overs and again you can see here that up until about the
fifteenth over both teams to a roughly level in terms of the run rate that
they’d achieved but you can see Pakistan was consistently above New Zealand for
pretty much most of the match so they were obviously playing better and you
know they were favored to win and as if suddenly they lost loads of wickets but
you can also see from the little circles they’ve got on here that basically they
weren’t losing many wickets either and therefore the run rate was much higher
and they were losing less wickets it’s pretty obvious they were gonna win the
match and therefore their odds would contract so yeah it’s it’s interesting
there are tons of sites out there with all of this data on very easy to find
we’re discussing it in the forum if you want to come into the forum and and find
out what these sites are or what people prefer to use but yeah looking at the
runway will allow you to get a view on where the match is going on which side
of the book you lean on because when you’re actively trading you know if
you’re looking for a wicket and you’ve got to counter that against the runway
that’s taking place underneath as well because that’s gonna work against you
that will form your traded window that you’re gonna be active in and vice versa
so yeah understanding these things will help you trade cricket pretty
effectively but you will have to take you beyond it but there is tons of data
that’s the great thing about cricket that I’ve found already and there’s
masses of data out there on every different aspect and even on the TV and
wherever you they give you a projected score so that’s pretty helpful as well
also think about it if you’ve got you know loads of wickets left and you’re
chasing a big total then you may just throw caution to the wind near the end
and that can have a dramatic impact so you tend to find and it’s obvious to me
straight away that that back-end set about of overs is where a lot of runs
can be scored because you’ve got nothing to lose at that particular point in time
so let’s give you some simple hints in terms of how cricket is going to trade
and what you should do about it so in this example you can see the graph that
I’ve got UPS England via Australia Australia or favourites and England were
batting so if Australia gets a wicket then it pulls the price in and also
wickets wood contract the run rate at which England
could score for their remaining over so you can see on the graph where the
wickets naturally occurred but also look here as well a boundary or a decent run
rate will start to push the price back out so Australia where favourites a
wicket Pulitzer price in and if England get a few runs then the price starts to
drift out again and you can see quite clearly without me telling you how this
match win you can see where the runs were scored by England and where the
wickets were taken by Australia so essentially you could pitch yourself in
at any one of these points and mmediately after that wicket you could
sort of say well it’s going to be another five minutes until the next
Ricketts I’m going to nip in here and trade out there or you could do the
opposite you could sort of say we haven’t had a wicket for ages so I’m
gonna back Australia at this particular point and wait for that wicket to occur
which point the wicket occurs and then you can trade out at that particular
point in time so if you’re used to trading over and unders on football it’s
a bit like that I say a bit because obviously it’s not exactly like that but
hopefully you can see the parallels there between those two sports and the
trading styles that you would adopt so yeah there are loads of data I’ve been
collecting and information and views on different aspects of it I’ve actually
almost put a slide up with all of the things that I’m looking at but it would
have just been dead boring so we would have read you off 20 different bits of
data that I’m collecting and how they may or may not affect the price but
there’s no point of me giving them to you until I’ve researched them properly
and probably what I will do at some point is put them on the Academy at some
particular point for you so you can have a look at all of the information that
I’ve gathered and some of the critical information that you’ll need to be
trading on cricket but I hope that’s given you a quick overview of how those
markets work their Cricket World Cup is on at the moment there’s going to be
significant volume it’s worth you having a look at them cricket matches do last
all day so my attitude to them is like I may trade the first couple innings or
the second innings depending upon what’s going on within that individual match
and depending upon what I’m doing elsewhere because during Royal Ascot for
example there was no way I would look at the curricular at all but on a poor
Monday or Tuesday afternoon card one there’s just two race meetings it’s
worth me nipping in and having a good nose at it it’s anyway I hope that’s
been useful for you you

8 comments

  • As an Indian I wonder why British people ignored cricket as a trading market till now.

  • Can we expect a Cricket Mystic inside of Betangel? That would be pretty cool!

  • The Scally Trader

    A good informative video. This shows the depth that Betfair and Bet Angel possess. The thing with Cricket, as with Tennis, is its an all day thing. You will need to spend 2-4 hours watching it and although you can do multiple trades you could get 7 or 8 profitable trades wiped out by one bad one. I think Cricket (as with Tennis) is for Traders with Huge Accounts who can risk 2% but profit monetarily wise with high figures. So if you have a £1k account and make £20 its the same risk for somebody who has a £10k who makes £200 or £100k account making £2000. Same as Horse racing but Horse races come around every 10 minutes. Its definitely something to look at but is a more specialised market for people who understand the game and who have large accounts. Might be a good sport for Courtsiders. As with everything else the fundamentals underpin the technicals. Learn them first and manage your RISK.

  • I could listen to your relaxing voice talk all night, or at least for few hours ha. You have been on solid last few days in my free time,, interesting resource. You are the OG of the Betfair trade and software game . Cuedos

  • About f**** time! Lol thanks Peter waited long time for this.

  • Personally i would prefer to trade test cricket. You have a lot more time to make decisions. The England – Ireland test match this week had some opportunity. I'm looking forward to the Ashes series coming up

  • If you are looking to work on cricket analysis program i can provide some good ideas.

  • 18:28 any perticular sites to watch out for?

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