Demonetization: Final Analysis of the Masterstroke by Dhruv Rathee [UPDATED]
Friends, after around 2 years of working hard day and night our Reserve bank has finished the counting of notes. and found out that 99.3% of demonetised currency has returned back in the banks. On this special occasion I would like to show you my analysis on demonetisation. Here I’ve analysed it’s positives and negatives. I’ve also analysed those positives which are told to be positives but are actually not. This analysis I’ve done in September 2017 when RBI said that 99% of currency has come back. But they were still counting and they took another one year where 99% figure has now become 99.3% Friends some people had estimated that around 30% of cash in our country is black money, They were expecting that around 30% of demonetised currency will not come back to the banks Infact our SBI has told in December 2016 after, a month of demonetisation, that they are expecting about 2.5 lacs crore currency out of 15.4 lacs crore will not come back to the bank After a month of demonetisation even SBI was assuming that this much amount of currency will not come back to the banks Because whoever had black money will not come to the bank to deposit it as if they do so bankers will match their salary and look for the unpaid tax and they will be caught. So either they will burn their black money or flow it in the river. This was told by our Prime Minister But nothing like this happened 99% of money has come back. This leads to two reasons. Either the amount of black money expected by the Government was not there only or people found new ways to deposit the money and turn their black money into white I feel it’s the second possibility as I’ve explained in the previous videos that there many loopholes in the demonetisation. So these people might have exploited those loopholes and turned their black money into white. 15.44 lac crore was the value of demonitised currency and 15.31 lac crores of currency has come back in the banks so the remaining 16,000 crore rupees is considered as the black money by people. But the truth is that a lot of money from this is not black money 3300 crore is kept in Nepal and Bhutan which the Indian Government is unable to get back There are so much amount which is kept with the NRI’s and they didn’t come back to return. a lot is with the poor people who couldn’t return back There are much in the donation box of the temples which they are requesting the Government to take back but the Government is not doing so. So all in all the thing which was considered as the surgical strike on black money couldn’t get even 0.1% of black money till now. After this it was told that the demonetisation will work a lot on the fake currency But just after 3-4 days of demonetisation there were photos of fake notes of 2000rs Infact by June 2017, more than 11 crores of fake currency was detected. and don’t know much was undetected. This shows there’s 0 impact of demonetisation on fake currency Then it was told that there will be an impact on the terror funding. There will be an impact on the funding of terrorist due to demonetisation. Demonetisation was on 8th November then after some days on 19th November, terrorists attacked our army in Assam There was another attack at Kashmir on 22nd November and again another big attack on 29th November at Nagrota where 7 soldiers of our army were martyr. Within a month of demonetisation, so many terrorist attacks took place which shows that it had no impact on terror funding. after this they changed the agenda and started saying that the purpose of demonetisation was to create cashless .economy, This is true that an increase was seen in the cashless economy during demonitisation but as the cash started to return, people started reducing the cashless transaction. This you can see very well in this graph How there was a significant growth in the cashless transactions and by February March, it again dropped down to where it was prior to demonetisation. Now it’s been told that the advantage of demonetisation is that a lot of growth is seen in the number of tax payers and direct tax collection. and yes there’s a lot of growth seen in the tax payers due to demonetisation and this is a big advantage of it. There has been 14% of increase in the direct tax collection as compared to the last year. This is true. But to call it an advantage of demonetisation is very misleading because of if look at the graph of the previous years 2011. 12, 13, 14, 15.16 then you will know that the increase of 14% in the tax collection over the year is not a big thing. even in 2013, 14% increase was seen and it has nothing to do with demonetisation. same thing you will see with the tax payers how they increased over the year then you will know that increase in the number of tax payer is not special. But the government will only compare with the last year saying look at the 14% increase and make it special and will not show the previous other years. Now even after 2 years our country is trying hard to make demonetisation a a positive achievement. Now few days ago Arun Jaitlleyji has tweeted, The phenomenal increase in the number of IT returns filed he gave a figure that in 2017-18, 6.86 crore income tax returns were filed. However it was just 3.8 crore in March 2014 is reflective of impact of demonetisation so he wants to say that, see you will find it a great achievement to listen about 6.8 crore income tax filed in 2017-18 whereas it was 3.8 crore before Modiji But you will know the truth friends only when you will see the entire data. You will see the growth in the Income tax year by year This thing was exposed by Economist, Rupa Subramanium in her Twitter account. Here you can see she has written the growth in percent of IT returns This cannot be told as the phenomenal increase in any way If you plot this data on a chart then you will see the growth in IT returns every year. You will see that nothing special is happening this year and there’s no effect of demonetisation on it. Now let’s come to the loss occurred due to demonetisation. 1.28 lac crore, it’s a very big amount This is loss Indian economy had to face just in the first 50 days of demonetisation. Just in the first 4 months of demonetisation more than 15 lac people lost their jobs. India’s GDP growth has decreases by 2.2 % Here I would like to thank Manhoman Ji who had predicted this very accurately. and Arving Kejriwalji, Shashi Tharoor ji these are those people who were criticising demonetisation since the beginning. and the educated people, all the economists had already predicted that this will happen. That time Our Prime Minister Modiji made fun of them and Harvard Education. But now their prediction has come true. Here we have the vice chairman of Neeti Ayog who says that the economy which has fallen down during demonetisation, GDP growth which fell down was actually not due to demonetisation But It was due to Raghu Ram Rajan’s policies, our former RBI Governor. 21,000 crore rupees was the cost of printing new notes, we culminate overall GDP loss, job loss, 1.28 crore lacs loss and the cost of printing these notes then it will be more than 5-6 lac crore of loss This is not less than a very big scam Don’t know from where all this money will be recovered after this more than 150 people were dead due to demonetisation. Some people died standing in the queue and some standing in front of the hospitals because hospitals stopped accepting cash. These are those people who can never come back to life people says that demonetisation was a temporary problem due to which a long term solution will be there The deaths of these people are not temporary, they are not going to get back to life in the long term. Our Prime Minister said that just give me 50 days Mitro and if after that there’s any mistake made by me than make me stand on the road and punish me. Now this move has been proved wrong but Prime Ministerji I would like to respectfully disagree with your views. Please do not give such violent suggestions. Indians are very non violent and do not believe in things like burning alive. But I would like to make a small request on behalf of the people of our country Please seek forgiveness for your mistake Say sorry once. because mistake is done by everyone, we all are humans everyone makes mistake But the person who admits his mistake only he can understand his mistake and can correct the mistakes in future. So I request you joining my hands to apologise once to the people of the country and even they will know how much o you care for them but you know what’s happening you are not apologising and there your BJP IT cell is trying hard to spread fake news and showing how this whole demonetisation scheme was a big success. so to hide a mistake 100 more lies are being told. BJP IT Cell had run fake twitter trend friends, by the name of Demonetisation success. where everyone started copy pasting the same tweets. Every the big people with verified twitter account holders too copied the same tweets to show the people how successful was the demonetisation. This is a very wrong thing Those who were given the task of showing demonetisation a success, they were digging all new ways to see it with a new angel and show demonetisation as a success. There’s an expression in English, “Putting lipstick on a pig” This expression suits best here Our government is trying to do the same with demonetisation. The example of this is few people started saying the positive effect of demonetisation is that the Government has collected a lot of data now They now know who all are the tax defaulters, more than 18 lacs tax defaulters are known now and now action will be taken against them Okay, let’s even see the amount of action been taken on them or even this reason will also turn out o be a fail like the other positive reasons. According to me the people from Income tax department used to raid even earlier and they raid even now. the rate of conducting raid can’t be increased because they are the same fix number of people who works in the Income tax department and conduct raids. so it’s not like all the black money will be dug out from the 18 lac people It will be something to look about. Friends if you think something has been missed out, I’ve not mentioned any positive or negative achievement then you can write it in the comments. But the rating for the advantages and the disadvantages that has come up of the demonetisation between 0-10 Then it should be rated as -10 There’s only the disadvantages so far Friends share this video so that every India will get to the know the truth of demonetisation. You can click here to subscribe to my Youtube channel for more informative and analytical videos. Let’s meet in the next video friends, Thank you.